The BVI are not due to have an election for another two years but 2024 has seen an unprecedented number of national elections across the globe. Almost half of the world’s voting-age population, over four billion people spanning nearly 80 countries, that collectively account for more than 60% of global GDP, will be eligible to cast their ballots in what Time magazine has dubbed “the ultimate election year.”


The UK voted a new government in last week and after a fourteen-year tenancy the Conservatives have conceded to a Labour Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and his newly elected party coming into power via a strong majority. Although it is still too early to gauge the wider impact on the global property market the change in government offers an opportunity for change.
Against the backdrop of an optimistic interest rates outlook, housing plays a big part of the new government’s manifesto. In Central London only 18% of buyers are purchasing their main home, 54% are purchasing a second home, and the other 28% are buying for investment. International investment is hugely vital for the prime central London market, with the three most dominant groups of buyers being from the U.S., the Middle East, and China.

France is recalibrating after finding a hung parliament after two weeks of voting in early July. The New Popular Front (NFP), a broad alliance of left of centre and environmental parties, won the largest number of seats although not a majority. The Ensemble, the centrist coalition led by French President Emmanuel Macron, came second. With a hung parliament and the Olympics being hosted this summer there is much to do. Financial experts are tracking France’s ability to implement necessary reforms and maintain its sovereign rating, especially with the public debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 110% and the European Union placing Paris under an excessive deficit procedure.

Perhaps the most closely watched election is in the U.S., the world’s largest economy and third-largest nation by population, which will elect its next president in November 2024. The Democratic and Republican party platforms’ approaches to real estate are starkly different. Democrats are looking to improve housing affordability through initiatives such as tax credits and down-payment assistance, while Republicans aim to stimulate economic growth through pro-business, low-tax, low-regulation policies. Although there is ongoing concern about the health and integrity of the presidential candidates the U.S. 2024 presidential election represents a critical moment for investors and financial analysts around the world.

Meanwhile, in other areas of the world, India, the largest nation by population, started its massive six-week election process in April 2024 and voting for the parliament of the 27-member European Union took place last month (June 2024). These events could have a dramatic effect on real estate markets with the outcomes already playing out in countries that held elections in the first half of 2024, and the anticipation of changes in the political landscape felt in countries that have yet to hit the polls. Historically, the housing market tends to experience a slowdown in activity during election years when we typically see the market slow as investors ‘wait and watch’.
Once new governments have formed however this can have an unsurprisingly positive effect. Since India’s incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) held onto power in this year’s elections and it is anticipated that the real estate market is likely to benefit. The current government has reiterated its intentions for high spending, drawing in investments to boost the manufacturing sector. Both infrastructure spending and manufacturing augur positively for the property market, including luxury real estate. Manufacturing is one of the industries that has led to the rise in the country’s millionaires, which numbered 850,000 in 2022, an increase of 473,000 since 2012, according to research by the Swiss bank Credit Suisse. It also calculated that the number of millionaires in India grew annually during that time by around 8.5%, compared with an average GDP growth of 5.6%. This has a huge impact on the luxury property market.

South Africa had a general election in May 2024 which come are describing as a “water shed”. This is the first year since 1994 that the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party does not have an outright majority and they will choose a partner to form a coalition government. The party’s main opposition, the Democratic Alliance, which has pushed for a major land reform policy that would transfer state-owned land to individuals, has said it is open to coalition talks.
With the uncertainties and changes new governments bring the property market is globally interconnected and the impact of each and ever election are far reaching. Many suggest that policies themselves have less impact with exchange rates and interest rates driving the activity. Certainly, that is clear now in New Zealand where property demand is growing from overseas buyers taking advantage of the advantageous exchange rates.
The luxury market however is not impacted in the same way that the overall housing market is by these factors. A post pandemic surge in the total wealth of the top income households has seen a resurgence in the luxury market.
The luxury market is thriving and the BVI is on the radar for UHNW investors looking for investments, second/third homes and family retreats. In the first half of 2024 we have seen buyers from Sweden, Denmark, France, Argentina and the UK make high value strategic investments in the BVI. In a year of elections we are watching how domestic and global markets respond but one thing is for sure, there is no where better to be than the BVI!

Content and data has been sourced from multiple agencies including Reuters, The Economist and reports issued by global real estate brands.